Special mid-week Edition: Comparing and contrasting the competing world views between Netflix and YouTube, as YouTube’s biggest success story – Mr Beast – soft-launches its IPO road show.
Hi, I’m Jim Louderback and this is my weekly creator economy newsletter. If you’ve received it, then you are either subscribed or someone forwarded it to you.
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YOUTUBE’S WINDOW IS NOW OPEN
Netflix just bet the farm on owning its own content. With a $72 billion offer for Warner Bros Discovery, the one-time DVD-by-mail startup has completed its transition from tech startup to old-media mogul.
The battle’s not over, with jilted suitor Paramount lurking. A media-obsessed Trump administration may intervene. But the biggest early winner? It might just be YouTube.
Netflix and YouTube want the same thing, but their strategies could not be more different.
YouTube has spent the last twenty years perfecting a hydroponic media ecosystem. It grows creators the way modern farms grow crops. It wants to build an environment where creators flourish, then distribute them in its own farmstand – aka every glowing rectangle where hungry viewers watch.
Netflix wants everything from seed to shelf. It wants to plant the seeds, grow the crops, run the farmstand and engineer a new crop of blockbuster Frankenfoods.
But mega media mergers are tough. Friendly deals can take a year, contested ones 18 months or more. Digesting and rebuilding the two companies can take even longer. Netflix does have a history of quickly slicing and dicing acquisitions… but never one of this size.
While Netflix, WBD and Paramount wrestle in the barnyard, YouTube gets the luxury of focus. It doesn’t need to buy legacy libraries. It doesn’t need to kiss Hollywood rings. It can keep nurturing creator-led media companies, invite traditional studios to upload alongside them, and invest in the AI tools that will reshape production.
But YouTube has its own hills to bulldoze. It’s still Google, which means competing teams, shifting priorities and outsized growth targets. Creator flight is a real risk as trust wavers amid ham-fisted cancellations and AI encroachment.
Some predict YouTube will (re)launch a true originals arm. I don’t buy it. The smarter bet is to strengthen its creator ecosystem and position itself as the default infrastructure for the next media era.
But AI could also be YouTube’s waterloo. If half of all uploads turn into algorithmically generated slop, quality and trust will decline fast.
It all amounts to a bet on the future of media in an infinite world of virtually free content (HT @Doug Shapiro). And the future of fandom too. Are you better off owning the biggest library of most beloved media franchises or creating a platform where new fandoms can organically emerge and thrive.
Still, if Netflix is marching the dinosaurs into the tarpit, YouTube is the organism adapting to the climate shift.
And whatever happens, you’re not going to be able to keep those creators down on the farm.
Related: @Evan Shapiro runs the numbers, says it will be a financial nightmare for Netflix (LinkedIn)
WHAT IT ALL MEANS
Look at this week as two reactions to the same media mega trend.
On the one side, the biggest fandom-first franchise to emerge from YouTube is headed for potentially a blockbuster IPO.
On the other side, Netflix wants to bulk up its owned roster of global mega-franchises, and the fans that come along with that. They hope to scale through consolidation.
Both are anticipating a global world. 70% of Mr Beast’s viewership is out of the US (for YouTube it’s closer to 90%), while at Netflix, the WB will join other acquisitions from the UK and Australia, and more likely on the way from Asia and beyond.
Both YouTube and Netflix may become clear winners over the next 5-10 years. Only one can do it without dragging a century of media baggage behind it.
But none of this accounts for the coming media disruption on the horizon. AI will reshape creation, production and distribution so completely that today’s giants may look like the buggy-whip builders of the past. Google and YouTube appear well positioned. But I remember when AOL-Time Warner looked unstoppable too (for about 90 seconds).
- Related: Netflix says viewership of SE Asian content grew 50% YOY in 2024 (Deadline)
- Related: @Evan Shapiro runs the numbers, says it will be a financial nightmare for Netflix (LinkedIn)
Ten Things I Think I Think About Netflix, YouTube, MrBeast and the Future of Media
In Monday’s issue I listed 10 questions I had about the Netflix / WB merger. Here are my best guess answers and predictions (with apologies to @Peter King)
1. I think I think that $82 billion doesn’t buy what it used to. It barely buys Warner Bros., yet it’s roughly what OpenAI has burned through in three years, with hundreds of billions more coming. When tech and media share price tags, the lines blur fast. OpenAI is definitely a media company… along with so much else (note: ads are coming soon in the spaces between).
2. I think I think Moneyball has finally swallowed the entire media industry. Netflix and YouTube run on data, not instincts, which makes Michael Eisner’s “I rely on gut instinct” era feel like black-and-white footage from grampy’s past. The future will value algorithm builders and data wonks more than the creatives.
3. I think I think if regulators smack down the WBD deal, Netflix pivots and buy culture directly. Imagine the top 20 YouTube studios and the top 20 podcasts under one roof. India, Korea, Lagos, Japan are all are ripe for harvesting. Now picture Joe Rogan, MrBeast, Prajakta Koli, Issei Toita and T.O.P lunching together in the corporate cafeteria. Picture the internet breaking.
4. I think I think this is really a fight about fandom. Either mega-franchises consolidate everything into a few giant black holes, or a messy primordial soup of creators and AI produces a universe of mid-level winners. Both futures are possible. But my bet is on the messy soup.
5. I think I think Beast Industries is the first prototype of the creator-run conglomerate era. If Jimmy pulls this off, five more creators will quickly follow. That’s either the start of a new media class or the beginning of chaos. I think both outcomes will be true at once.
6. I think I think Netflix’s model is expensive but sturdy, while YouTube’s model is cheap but jittery. Recessions usually reward sturdy, but the creator ecosystem has surprised us before. I think Netflix will have trouble digesting WB and servicing the debt, while YouTube’s focus wins out.
7. I think I think AI slop hits YouTube long before it hits Netflix. A backlash is inevitable. Audiences will initially retreat into familiar, human-made mega-franchises. But after the messy middle, AI and human creators will co-exist, and AI generated cinema franchises reduce the cost of production.
8. I think I think Amazon is the stealth contender no one should sleep on. With Twitch, MGM, Prime Video and the shopping cart, it could outflank both Netflix and YouTube. Emphasis on could. So far Amazon’s creator initiatives have mostly fallen flat.
9. I think I think infinite content won’t strengthen today’s giants. It will mutate the landscape entirely. Most of today’s platforms and media companies will look more like MySpace and AOL-Time Warner as new players emerge. Google looks stable today, but so did IBM and Microsoft in their heyday.
10. And I think I think we’re watching the last chapters of the platform era and the beginning of something completely new. But what do I know… just a surf-punk from Pacifica ruminating over the future of media and tech.
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Where’s Jim?
Wrapping up planning for the 1 Billion Followers Summit and writing my trends and signals for 2026 and beyond. Monday will be our last newsletter until 2026, but I’ll be peppering you with signals, trends and predictions starting in early January!
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100% written by me. AI used very sparingly for edits.
I’ve built and sold multiple creator economy startups to top media companies – including an MCN to Discovery and VidCon to Paramount. Subscribe here on LinkedIn to get this newsletter every Monday.
Let me know what you think – email me at jim@louderback.com. Thanks for reading and see you around the internet.
