This Week: Some reflections on the top about the TikTok brinkmanship over the weekend, followed by some scenarios around what’s next and yes, there was other news too ponder.
THOUGHTS ON TIKTOK AND TWINKIES
TikTok took itself down right before the ban went into effect early Sunday, and then 14 hours later President Trump indicated he would sign an executive order to bring the app back, at least for 90 days. That was enough for TikTok and its data partners to restore service.
But not for Google and Apple, who at publication still hadn’t made the app available in their app stores. Makes sense, as each is liable for up to $5k per user and the liability exists for 5 years – longer than the Trump administration. Penalties could add up to hundreds of billions over time.
President Trump is calling for a 50/50 ownership structure in exchange for saving the app, where half is owned by the US (presumably the government) and half owned by “whichever purchaser we so choose”.
A lot can still go wrong, including what it will take to get Google and Apple to replace the apps in the app store.
I posted a video shortly after TikTok returned with my concerns – watch it here.
But whatever happens – in the end – the whole mess is a tragedy. Wrapped up in a twinkie.
Many Victims, a Few Villains, No Heroes: Start with TikTok. Their neener, neener all or nothing attitude did nothing to help. Brinkmanship at its very worst. They COULD have moved to divest. Instead, they waffled, shut down the app and then brought it back after some vague glad-handed promises.
Our presidents are no better. Biden signed the TikTok law then flip-flopped. President Trump did the flippy floppy as well, first proposing the ban in 2020 and then turning it into a bargaining chip.
- Aside: It’s fascinating that Trump’s first big “art of the deal” moment, and likely first showdown with Congress will come over a social media app best known for Tide Pods and the Grimace Shake.
Likely Buyers: MRBeast threw his hat in the ring, likely just to promote the last few episodes of Beast Games.
Elon Musk wants in too. It’s a safe bet that he’s hoping to be part of that 50/50 deal that Trump promised. If so, the core platform will drastically change. The X-ification of TikTok will drive many into the arms of Shorts, Instagram and Snap.
I like the concept of AI company Perplexity buying TikTok, and they’ve already put in a bid. But they’re not much more than a dark horse.
Apple and Google: It’s also sadly ironic that the two companies that profited the most from TikTok’s rise – Apple and Google – are now playing a big part in the demise. Google, in particular, profits at both ends of this sad tragedy, making billions in app-store payments on the way up, and then more billions from Shorts on the way down.
Biggest Losers: TikTok’s cavalier approach to kids’ health – knowingly looking aside as tweens and younger teens embraced the platform – caused mental anguish, distress and even deaths among the most vulnerable. But TikTok’s hardly alone in culpability – a UCSF study released Thursday again validates what we already know: most US 11-12 year olds use TikTok and YouTube (and to a lesser extent, Snap, Instagram, and others). And that leads to depression, ADHD, eating disorders and more. Our kids are the real losers no matter what happens. The plus side of potential US ownership? Hopefully stronger safeguards.
In the end, most of the rest of us lose too. Creators lose their livelihoods as TikTok gets defanged, debauched or destroyed. Families lose their kids. The rich get richer. The world gets meaner. And innocents artists lose the most.
The other big losers? The internal employees who poured heart and soul into building something special – and the entrepreneurs building on top of the platform. The uncertainty and brinksmanship devalues their effort and adds overwhelming angst onto an already inhumanly stressful job.
Where’s the Outrage: Whatever happens to TikTok over the next 90 days, I’m struck most by the collective “meh” from most users. Where’s the outrage? The shutdown exposed the biggest secret of the platform. It’s addictive. But not very likable. Over nearly 10 years, the strongest parasocial relationships were fostered by a green bird hawking language courses. It rarely resonated deep into our emotional core.
Twinkies: Remember in 2012 when they stopped making Twinkies? Sure, we all missed them. But apart from a raccoon named RJ, we never really mourned their passing. Deep down we knew they were bad for us and that our lunchboxes would be healthier in a post-Twinkie world.
A year later they returned. We hardly noticed. I fear TikTok is the 2025 version of the Twinkie.
Recap: I’ve written a lot about the divestiture / ban. I believe a Chinese-controlled TikTok is bad for US National Security. I believe TikTok is dangerously destructive for teens and kids. I was convinced that TikTok would be either shut down or sold.
I was right – at least for a few hours.
We had four years to try to fix all of this, and instead we ended up with a mess of pumped-up posturing and finger pointing. I hoped reason would prevail. I hoped for a settlement.
I was wrong.
Our biggest worry used to be the lack of a cure for the summertime blues. Now it’s rot from incessant algorithmic brain probes. Unfortunately, the kids are NOT going to be alright.
Perhaps some good will come from the ban – and ensuing political theater. Maybe we’ve discovered that TikTok is just an unhealthy snack and we’ve over-indulged.
But just like when we lost the Twinkie, our healthy eating habits will be short-lived. Back then we still had Devil Dogs and Debbie Cakes. And even if TikTok fades away today, we’ll just replace it with Shorts, Reels and more fake sugar. But maybe, just maybe, we’ll learn.
I can only hope.
Latest Developments
- How Much Is US TikTok Worth? Maybe $40B – $50B?
- Not So Fast: Senators tell Trump they plan to enforce the law here – and here too.
- Ad Campaigns Resume: TikTok restarts the engine.
- Global POV: How the rest of the world sees the ban.
What’s Up with the Executive Order? It’s not the law of the land. Here’s what top lawyer @Franklin Graves had to say:
“The risk of an EO or any handshake deal is that it can be revoked at any time. The best outcome for ByteDance is an act of Congress (literally) that gets this law off the books completely and for good. Until that time, creators, brands, and other creator economy professionals are best to keep in play any contingency plans, including with contracts, campaigns, or otherwise.”
Here’s my best guess on possible outcomes. Which will prevail? Your guess is as good as mine. I’m sure others will emerge.
- Congress digs in its heels and moves to enforce the law. Google and Apple keep TikTok and other Bytedance apps out of the Appstore. TikTok fades.
- President Trump convinces Congress to rescind the law, and let him move ahead with negotiating a deal with China.
- The US government teams up with Elon Musk to buy the US TikTok operations from Bytedance. TikTok gets rolled into X.
- One of the other buyer consortiums acquires the US TikTok assets – either Mr Beast, Frank McCourt, Perplexity or someone else. A considerably weaker TikTok returns.
- The TikTok ban turns into a meme which we all can’t stop talking about for 3 days. We all forget about it next week after Taylor Swift releases a surprise double album about football.
Other voices to check out: I know @Lia Haberman is working on a newsletter for today, check out ICYMI here. @Phil Ranta’s been posting like crazy too, good insight here.
SPONSOR: The long-debated question—what’s the real difference between Creators and influencers? Whalar Group Co-Founder and Co-CEO Neil Waller breaks it down: Creators craft stories that foster communities, while influencers aim to drive action. As LinkedIn rises in the Creator Economy, brands can unlock powerful opportunities to connect with professional audiences. Read more on LinkedIn’s Marketing Blog [https://www.linkedin.com/business/marketing/blog/marketing-collective/creators-vs-influencers-brand-marketing-linkedin]
MORE TOP STORIES
- Ms Rachel: Great to see Rachel Accurso headed to Netflix – but it’s part of a broader trend. Instead of creating custom shows for the streamer, the 4 episodes will be repackaged versions of her YouTube content. Similar deals are happening broadly, as the formats created on YouTube infiltrate some of the biggest streaming platforms. MR Beast’s original production for Amazon might be an outlier, not the norm, going forward. The fascinating part? Whether original or repacks, adding creator shows to traditional streamers will increase audience to their YouTube backchannel. I’m surprised that those back episodes aren’t part of the licensing agreements as well. It goes the other way too. Many traditional TV libraries have been repackaged for YouTube for big success – like Little Dot’s History Hit, for example.
- Social Harms Kids: Mentioned this above, but worth calling out here. Another study proving what we already know – UCSF finds that most US 11-12 year olds use TikTok and YouTube (and to a lesser extent, Snap, Instagram, and others) and it leads to depression, ADHD, eating disorders and more. Under 13-year-olds have more than 3 social accounts on average and most call TikTok their favorite. Well worth reading the full study in American Pediatrics.
- The Creator-Based Future of Gaming: Long-time YouTube followers will likely remember @Alex Carloss, one of the early execs and creator advocates. We caught up at 1 Billion Followers in Dubai and he told me about the creator-first gaming company he’s building called Edenic. It’s an evolution of Roblox, sort of an accelerator, sort of a game studio, and one that realizes AI and new tools will let a million gamer creators bloom. Keep your eye on it. Google Ventures agrees, investing in Rooms – a 3D design app that’s enabled more than a million virtual spaces and mini-games. The overall gaming industry is in a bit of a slump, but as AI democratizes creation, expect creators to play a bigger role. Want to see where gaming is today? Check out @Matthew Ball’s insightful 220-page STATE OF VIDEO GAMING presentation.
QUIBIS
YOUTUBE
- When your biggest competitor is self-destructing, it’s best just to say nothing. That was YouTube’s playbook last week- beyond giving $15M to victims of the LA fire.
META
- Copyright Clowns: Inside Meta’s Llama AI model development, which apparently trained on copyrighted books and other data.
- Haters Gonna Post, Post, Post, Post..: And now they can do it on Meta, as 404 Media explores how the lack of moderation will likely lead to violence against immigrants in the US. Leaked document reveals what Meta now considers permissible speech. It’s disgusting.
- An Ill Wind: Global fact checkers respond to Meta’s move to disband US fact-checking org.
- Creator Boycott: Meta seeing pushback from users and creators over new policies.
- 3 Minutes In Heaven: Instagram doubles the length of Reels to 3 minutes.
- New Editor: Meta unveils “Edits” as CapCut goes dark.
- No, Please Stop: Here comes Gen Beta.
OTHER CREATOR ECONOMY
- VidCon Departure: Sad to see @Colin Hickey leave VidCon. Colin was employee 2, and we partnered together on the sale to Viacom and then ran the business together for 4+ years. He’s available y’all!
- Electric Brats: Missed this last week, but great to see old friend @Matt Gielen sell Electric Monster to Brat. Can’t wait to see what they do together!
- Unintended Consequences: As TikTok users embrace other Chinese apps, Duolingo’s seeing huge interest in learning Mandarin.
- Fun For All: Popeye and the Skeleton Dance are now in the public domain. Have at it creators!
- Global Crackdown: Austrian privacy group files GDPR complaints against TikTok, Temu, Shein, WeChat and more.
- Beware the Ghost Shark: Snap smells blood in the water, launches a creator-based campaign to woo TikTok users to Snap.
- Related: Everyone wants a piece of the expected TikTok diaspora.
- Beast Numbers: Amazon says Beast Games is its second largest launch in 2024. This bodes well for creators looking to prop-up traditional media. But let’s wait until the end of the run to truly measure the beastly impact.
- Remember to Disclose: LinkedIn under fire in India over lack of disclosure in sponsored posts.
- Dubai Wrap Up: Nice summary article from @taylor Lorenz on last week’s 1 Billion Followers Summit.
CREATOR TECH – AI, WEB3, VR, MORE
- Future of Commerce: TikTok’s shop will transition to a more agentic view of shopping whether it survives or not. @Scott Belsky’s monthly newsletter explores how on-the-fly UI and software that adapts and “conforms” to your individual use will change how we buy and use so many things. Creators have a place here in both the relationship-driven side of commerce and in building agentic friends, among others.
100% written by me – no human or AI ghostwriters were involved in the production (except for the cover art!).
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I’ve built and sold multiple creator economy startups to top media companies – including Discovery and Paramount. Subscribe here on LinkedIn to get this newsletter every Monday.
Let me know what you think – email me at jim@louderback.com. Thanks for reading and see you around the internet.