01-03-2023: Welcome to 2023! A few news stories of note below, but 2023 predictions make up the bulk of this issue, as I bring together some of the top thinkers to lay out what THEY think will happen! Let’s jump into it.
11 Predictions from the most accurate expert I know: Mark Anderson of the Strategic News Service newsletter and conference has a 95% success rate since 2006 – and last year hit 98% across China, chips, and battery advances. This year he’s back! His first is aimed squarely at the Creator Economy as he predicts a “MegaFUP” for Meta (FUP = Failure to Understand Potential) – and then laments that Zuckerberg can’t be fired. Other predictions include crypto crapping out and AI’s neural network dead-end. First three are free, but you’ll need a subscription to read the full list. Highly recommended.
Comprehensive Look at Crypto/Blockchain in 2023: It took 200 hours to write and will likely take you some time to get through. But Messari has put together a look at the trends defining everything from Web3 (page 147) to NFTs (page 129), along with Defi, coins, broader themes, people to watch, policy and more. Don’t miss the last section on Media DAOs, this might be how a truly successful modern-day MCN will be built. (HT Brian Zwerner).
The Platformer Rates 2022 and Predicts 2023: I’m a fan of experts who rate their predictions, and Casey Newton did pretty well last year – although he danced around the eventual Twitter dumpster fire. He’s super connected and insightful – and will likely be proven correct. Top picks: Media divorces Twitter and content moderation becomes illegal.
Big Legal Changes in 2023 Creators Need to Know: Tubefilter tackles legal predictions for creators in 2023, focusing on content liability, music licensing developments and an expected update to endorsement guidelines. These predictions – if they all come to pass – will radically change the creator landscape for many.
Microsoft Wants To Own the Couch: That’s one of 11 predictions from Evan Shapiro – aka EShap – who rolls out the media universe maps, predicted the 2022 ad recession and is a true genius in understanding the shifting tides of media.
PLATFORMS PREDICT – Most of the top platforms released their own trend/prediction reports too. Fascinating on their own, the trends also give insight into how each platform sees itself developing in 2023. Here’s what they focused on:
- Instagram surveyed GenZ in October to build the bulk of their 9 predictions. Top picks: Thrift stores and sunblock will be big, while creators diversify into podcasts.
- TikTok’s What’s Next forecasts three megatrends for 2023: taking action, joyful lifehacks and hyper-niche communities. Required reading for anyone building on TikTok.
- YouTube didn’t really predict anything, but they did post a 2022 recap – along with a list of 15 rising Shorts stars – which I’ll interpret as a prediction for stardom in 2023. My fave? Shelby Young – she’s hilarious.
- LinkedIn Released 41 big ideas – and then invited their audience to comment on them. They’re all over the map, but I ended up posting about three of them: an algorithmic backlash (intentionality and ownership are more interesting), merging of physical and digital retail (it’s really all about shoppertainment), and a decline in travel (vehemently disagree, we’ll be travelling better, not less).
- ICYMI – we covered Pinterest’s trends a few weeks ago.
- Peter Csathy double dips with 11 media predictions and then 12 month-by-month predictions too. Top pick: Comcast buys Netflix.
- 40 things people aren’t paying enough attention to – Rex Woodbury surveyed 40 founders, investors and operators for answers. Top Picks: The rise of creator commerce, avatars kill the video star, and TikTok as a top news source.
- Marketing Trends from Meltwater: Some obvious and self-serving, but a few of the 12 stand out, including changes coming to the creator/brand relationship.
- VC Tomasz Tunguz with five predictions, calling 2023 ”the first year of a new-normal era”.
- Brian Morrisey of The Rebooting: Brian focuses on 3 media trendlines in 2023 including the rightsizing of the creator economy and the end of mass social.
- Neiman Labs on AI and content: In a creative twist, David Cohn used AI to create a fully generative video on his predictions. TLDR: “What algorithms did for content discovery, (AI) will do for content creation”.
- Colin and Samir released their predictions a few months ago. Worth perusing if you haven’t read them.
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QUIBIS – yes news still happened while you were sunning, skiing and surfing:
- Congrats to Stephanie and MatPat for selling Theorist Media – perhaps the first of many creator exits to come this year?
- TikTok teams up with Canva to help you make better ads.
- China Bytedance employees access US TikTok data to track journalists and uncover leaks.
- US Congress bans TikTok on official devices.
- VidIQ adds ChatGPT feature – it wrote (most of) this week’s headline!
Tip of the Week: Want to review the 4th quarter of 2022? I just pulled together all of my analysis from last quarter into a handy free ebook. It’s a test – download it and let me know what you think! If you like it I’ll keep doing it.
Off Topic – What I’m watching/reading/listening to:
- LOLing at CreativeBloq’s top ad fails for 2022, including the new Instagram handle for the Italian division of Volkswagen that went horribly wrong.
See you around the internet, and feel free to share this with anyone you think might be interested, and if someone forwarded this to you, you can sign up and subscribe on LinkedIn for free here!
Want more discussion and analysis of top 2023 trends? Check out Renee Teely and I on our Creator Feed podcast as we dive into 2023, including my three predictions so dumb, I don’t dare put them here.